Monday, October 4, 2010

Caution: This may depress Democrats

For the first time, Gallup has released its likely voter model for the generic congressional ballot.

If 3BP had an animated Drudge-like siren, you would see it right here.

Their likely voter model interviewed more than 1,800 individuals. In other words, it's hard to get more accurate than a model this large.

The best case scenario for Democrats? A 13 point margin of victory for Republicans.

For an idea of what this means, let's take a look at previous elections as they compared to the generic poll lead per Gallup:
For a point of reference, in 1994 the GOP won the national vote by 7 points and held 230 seats on election night. In 2006 the Democrats won the national vote by 8 points and finished with 233 seats. And in 2008, the Democrats won the national vote by 10.5 points, and finished with 257 seats. 257 Republican seats would translate to a 78-seat pickup.
 And as of right now, we're 2.5 points higher, at worst, than 2008.

Will it get tighter? It has to.

But this is one heck of a starting point.

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