Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Fox and Quinnipiac.

There are several ways to look at the new polls from Quinnipiac and Fox.

One, Kasich's lead has shrunk to 9 from the previous Quinnipiac Poll.
Two, Kasich's lead has improved to 6 from the previous Fox News Poll.
Three, Kasich's average lead has increased since it began shrinking a couple weeks ago.

For now, let's focus on the differences between the Quinnipiac poll of nearly three weeks ago and today.

Among Republicans, Kasich went from 91-4 to 88-6, a net decrease of 5.
Among Democrats, Strickland went from 84-8 to 86-7, a net increase of 3.
But the interesting movement happens among Independents.

Despite Kasich's lead shrinking overall, Kasich's standing among the key Independent vote improved drastically. In September, Kasich's lead among these swing voters sat at 55-32. Today that lead has jumped to 62-29, a net gain of TEN points. In other words, during this period of time where Strickland enjoyed total dominance on TV, he lost massive ground to Kasich among the vital swing vote. That says a lot.

While Kasich's favorables suffered a net decrease of 4 points, Ted Strickland would gladly exchange his 41-47 number for Kasich's 46-30 favorables.

In news that will make it increasingly difficult to turn the tide, the number of voters who say their mind is made up has jumped from 85 to 89, and 91 among Kasich voters.

Strickland may also want to reconsider the Oct. 17th rally with the President. Among Independents, 6% would be more likely to vote for Strickland thanks to an Obama campaign appearance versus 39%(!) being less likely.

Ultimately, considering the value the Strickland team placed on Quinnipiac all year, and their massive sample size, a nine point lead this late in the game is quite daunting - especially with so many voters having already made up their mind.

Moving on to the Fox Poll...

Unfortunately, I don't have the crosstabs of their previous poll and as of writing this, their link on their website takes you to the September crosstabs. What do we know? The lead that once was 2 is now up to 6 points with Kasich enjoying a 49-43 lead.

UPDATE: Ok, I've got the crosstabs.

In a way, the Fox News poll is a bit of the inverse of the Quinnpiac poll. Kasich improved his standing among partisans and worsened it among Independents, but not by much in either demographic.

Kasich's favorable numbers sit at +10 overall and +20 among Independents. For Strickland, those numbers are stuck at almost the inverse, -7 overall and -20 among Independents.

Fox also includes the always enjoyable Tea Party question. This time we learn that 52% overall and 63% of Independents support them. Keep shouting profanities, Chairman Redfern. Keep telling people they are radicals that don't like America, Governor.

But the most fun question? Their generic 2012 question. Would you support a Republican candidate or President Obama? The GOP wins 53-38 overall and 58-22 among Independents.

In summary...

Ultimately, Strickland's own standing in the polls has worsened. Once again his lowly level of support is stuck below 45, lowering to 43.4% per the RCP average.

There are four weeks until election day. Four weeks.

Strickland has tried negative ads. He's tried positive ads. And yet he's still flatlined. And as we all know by now, the odds of an incumbent winning when under 50% are daunting. Let's remember the words of Eric Rademacher from the Ohio Poll:
"The fact is, for an incumbent governor, it's a little bit late in the year to be under 50 percent support."
And he said that 3 weeks ago.

Since nothing else has worked, the Governor needs a gamechanger.


  1. LOL... No matter what the polls say, Keeling says, it's good news for Kasich!

    Eight point swing for Kasich? No problem. Ten point net improvement in Strickland's favorabilities? No problem. Four point net drop in Kasich's no problem.

    The Quinnipiac numbers on independents cannot be believed. Enter Fox News poll.

    But never mind that. Because it showed Kasich with a six point lead! And look at Strickland's favorability, never mind it's statistically tied with Kasich's!

    God, you could be the Iraqi Information Minister.

    Yet another post where you cherry pick the data and whistle past the graveyard. A few weeks ago, you claimed that the Fox News poll doesn't matter. Now it's the most accurate thing in polling. You're killing me, Keeling.

  2. Once again, Modern does his best Kevin Bacon ALL IS WELL speech.

    In case you missed it, the past three polls have Kasich +9, +6, and +8.

    You can dismiss all three if you like. I can't force you to take yourself seriously.

    As for the details in your post, Kasich and Strickland's favorables are statistically tied? It's cute how you ignore the net favorables which show Kasich at +10 and Strickland at -7. It doesn't matter if their favorables are statistically tied if the incumbent has far higher unfavorables. BTW, unfavorables among Independents are a bit outside the MOE, 54 for Strickland, 28 for Kasich. Overall, it's 49 unfavorable for Strickland and just 35 for Kasich. In other words, you've absolutely lost it if you think the favorability numbers are good news for your guy.

    As for claiming the Fox News poll didn't matter...please provide the quote and context. From what I can tell, I never claimed they were any less important than any other poll.

    Unlike you, I take ALL polls into consideration, and I don't dismiss any in looking at polling averages.

    Cherrypicker? Quit looking in the mirror.

    One question in closing, any guesses when Strickland's average level of support will top 45? After all, it's been since 2009.

  3. All polls including internals have Ted right at 42 % .He can not get past that threshold, I am very nervous about this race now.

    I was hoping to see Ted hit 45 and then gain the traction to be around 49-50 with 2 weeks out.

    I just don't think it is possible now.

  4. I'm not dismissing a single poll. YOU are. Keeling there's no way that Kasich's campaign would go nuclear in its negativity as it had if this was a 6-8 point race.

    You said ignore the actual results of the other polls all that matters is the aggregate, until that collapsed literally in a day.

    Quinnipiac is still the outlier. Just less though that it was a few weeks ago. It still shows a lead significantly more so than any other poll.

    It also shows Kasich bleeding support rapidly.

    So you instead take comfort in a Fox News poll that shows the race similar to the most recent Rasmussen... as if that's significant. They're conducted using the same methodology by the same pollster.

    You claim that DESPITE THE QUINNIPIAC POLL Strickand's situation has worsen. THAT is cherry picking.

    You're the only one doing the Kevin Bacon routine. You're begging people to ignore the REST of the polling data, you know, the one showing the race rapidly tighening in Strickland's favor.

    Never mind the rising water, folks, the ol' Titanic must have busted water pipe. That's all this post is. Distract from the larger polling trends.

  5. So your argument is that Quinnipiac is basically an outlier except for Rasmussen and Fox News.

    You do realize how silly that sounds, right?

    Once again, I incorporate all polls when I consider the state of the race.

    You don't.

    That is cherrypicking.

  6. My only question is whether the poll was taken before or after the "One Nation" rally. As we know, no poll taken before the rally has any credibility.



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