Check out the blue line.
Going back to the CNN/Time poll released on Sept. 14th, Ted Strickland's average level of support in each of the seven polls has been 43.3%. This does not include the "internal" pro-Strickland poll released by the Center for a Moderate Majority which listed Strickland's support at 41% and beating Kasich by a single point.
[DJ sidenote: The Center for a Tablesauce Majority produced their own poll this weekend. The sample included my wife, my brother, my tropical foliage plant, my dog Maddie and three people I ran into at the Ohio State bar in Georgetown on Saturday. Kasich won 85-15. I'm gonna have to do a better job convincing my dog.]Over the course of these past 9+ months, and despite all of his efforts to convince Ohioans that everything is going just fine, Governor Strickland has been unable to improve his own level of support.
With 29 days to go, Ted Strickland has to find a way to do something he has failed to do all year, and I don't mean introduce a new idea to bring jobs to Ohio.
He needs to convince the skeptics that he can Turnaround Ohio.
As we've been saying since this race began, this election is first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent. The big challenge for an incumbent seeking re-election in an environment like this is convincing those final 6.8% that have shunned you all year to come to your side.
And that's something a commercial like this will make very difficult for Ted Strickland.