Wednesday, October 6, 2010

New poll shows Kilroy campaign dead in the water...

The Hill, one of the prominent daily political newspapers in DC, has conducted 12 Independent polls of the most vulnerable freshmen Congressmen.

Mary Jo Kilroy can start packing her things.

Kilroy is nine points behind Stivers, the 2008 Republican nominee, according to The Hill/ANGA poll. She received 38 percent to his 47, with 15 percent of likely voters undecided.

Her biggest problem appears to be among independent voters. The poll found Stivers beating Kilroy among independents by nearly a 2-1 advantage, 46 percent to 25.
38% with less than four weeks to go? Game. Set. Match. And those Independent numbers? Ouch.

This one is done. But please, Democrats, keep contributing to Mary Jo. I like to see money wasted.

Jim Renacci's race against John Boccieri is much closer.
Boccieri trails his Republican challenger by just three points — 42 percent to 39 — with 15 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill/ANGA poll.

But dissatisfaction with Congress in this district is high, particularly among independents. Eighty-five percent of independents strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

Even though the race is close, the remaining undecided voters are largely Republican and independent, making it tough for Boccieri to make up much ground. Just 14 percent of remaining undecided voters are Democrats, while 33 percent are Republican and 41 percent independent.
And once again, the key number here is Boccieri's 39% level of support as an incumbent. It's far too late in the game to be that low. I think we'll see this one break hard towards Renacci late.


  1. I'm starting to believe you've never been taught about polls by a pollster.

    Seriously, you didn't catch the major flaw in this poll? It left out HALF the candidates.

    In 2008, the Pro-Life/Social conservative Independent candidate and the Libertarian candidate got... 9% of the vote together.

    Leaving them out of the poll inflates support for Stivers because it forces the respondants to only choose between Stivers and Kilroy and not the other two candidates on the ballot.

    Factor in the numbers such candidates got in 2008, and you get and presuming that they are people who otherwise would vote for Stivers and you get a dead heat.

    You really should take a class on polling or something.

    No poll is valid if it leaves out candidates in a race where such "minor party" candidates have gotten enough support to affect the outcome.

  2. Totally agree that they have an effect.

    That said, Stivers has tacked right and the threat of a third party candidate is far less pronounced than we saw in 2008.

    But despite all that, for arguments sake let's say Stivers once again loses 9% of his support. That would tie the race, right?

    And Kilroy is stuck at 38%.

    We still have 15% undecided. And traditionally, where do undecided voters go? That's right, they break to the challenger. Even moreso in this environment.

    But please, keep believing Kilroy has hope. It diverts energy and resources from races that are far closer.

  3. If a poll is fundamentally flawed, then it's data is garbage. You cannot agree with me that I'm right that's its fundamentally flawed, and then cite the rest of its data. It's all garbage. And, again, we haven't even LOOKED at their assumptions of their likely voter model.

    Stivers had to PHOTOSHOP support for himself at a Columbus Tea Party rally where people... actually held signs up protesting Stivers running again. So, I'm not persuaded that the guy you brought in astroturfing Beltway workers to pose as local Stivers supporters in 2008 has mended the right side of his fence as well as you think he has.

    You think there's LESS support for third party candidates this year? LOL. Ok... that's not what I've seen from the Tea Party.

    Frankly, I don't know how much the undecided rule applies in this case. The general rule applies in the case where there's a new challenger and an incumbent. It does not necessarily follow with rematches. And, frankly, I'm surprised that 15% are undecided on a race they essentially voted on just two years ago.

    The fact that the Constitution Party and the Libertarian candidates will have their party id listed on the ballot helps them. The Tea Party is definately more of a Libertarian than traditionally conservative movement.

    Heck, even your old boss Tiberi showed in his early tracking polls in May that the Libertarian candidate was getting 5% of the vote.

    Is Kilroy behind? Absolutely. Is it OVER? Not by a long shot.

    Lee Fisher is over. This one, I dunno. It could be closer than we realize.


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